ACI World has produced the latest estimates regarding impact on passenger traffic.
Looking back at 2020
- The impact of the COVID-19 crisis removed more than 1 billion passengers for the whole year 2020 compared to the projected baseline (pre-COVID-19 forecast for 2020), representing a decline of 64.6% of global passenger traffic (see Table 1). Compared to 2019 level, the decline is recorded at 63.3%.
- Europe and the Middle East were the two most impacted regions with similar declines of 5% compared to the projected baseline.
- After being hit first, Asia-Pacific embarked on recovery earlier and faster than other regions—mostly driven by China’s sizable domestic market— and closed the year 2020 with a decline of 61.3% compared to the projected baseline (59.8% decline compared to 2019 level). Asia-Pacific, however, recorded the highest traffic loss of all regions with a loss of 2.15 billion passengers in 2020 compared to the projected baseline.
- Latin America-Caribbean was the least impacted of all regions posting a decline of 61.1% compared to the projected baseline (-59.8% compared to 2019 level).
- Following the “Great Lockdown” of April 2020, international passenger traffic was virtually non-existent in the second half of 2020. International passenger volume ended the year below 1 billion passengers, a decrease of more than 75% compared to 2019 volume. (see Chart 2).
- Domestic passenger traffic volume was helped by the early recovery of major domestic markets like China, Russia and the US. Globally, domestic traffic volume for 2020 was recorded slightly above 2.4 billion passengers, a decline of 54.7% compared to 2019 volume (see Chart 2).
Projections for 2021
- The impact of the COVID-19 crisis is forecasted to remove additional 4.7 billion passengers by year end 2021 compared to the projected baseline (pre-COVID-19 forecast for 2021), representing a decline of 47.5% of global passenger traffic (see Table 1). Compared to 2019 level, the decline is forecasted to be -43.6% by year end. The first quarter of 2021 is expected to show little signs of improvement compared to Q4 2020. As the vaccination rollout and vaccine uptake increases, more passengers are expected to return to travel with the biggest surge in Q3 and Q4 of 2021.
- Similar to 2020, Europe and the Middle East are forecasted to remain the two most impacted regions with declines of 1% and 58.9%, respectively, compared to the projected baseline due to their high dependence on international travel and connectivity which are recovering at a slower pace than domestic travel.
- Following its early start to recovery, Asia-Pacific will outperform all other regions in each quarter of 2021 and is forecasted to end the year 2021 with an estimated traffic loss of 40.3% compared to the projected baseline (a decline of 35.1% compared to 2019 level). Driven by the combination of a fast-recovering US domestic market and strong vaccination rate, North America forecast for 2021 will significantly improve and the region is expected to end the year 2021 at -43.5% compared to the projected baseline (or -39.9% compared to 2019 level).
- International passenger traffic is expected to remain weak in the first half of 2021, but early signs are pointing to a significant surge in air travel demand for the second half of 2021 as an increasing number of people get vaccinated and international travel restrictions are gradually eased. While international passenger traffic volume will still lag behind domestic traffic in 2021, it is forecasted to end the year above 1.6 billion passenger or 4% of 2019 level (see Chart 2).
- Domestic passenger traffic started its path to recovery faster than international traffic. Globally, domestic traffic will continue to increase in 2021 to reach close to 5 billion passengers by the end of 2021 corresponding to 65.6% of the 2019 level (see Chart 2).